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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd