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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still